All decisions are emotional
“All decisions are emotional…” Or, how a 20-year-old trade school grad can retire as a multimillionaire.
An off schedule post
This is an off-schedule post. That means something different or interesting is going on that warrants paying attention to. So, my friends, read on to find out more!
Now Dave, how can you say that?
Well, it’s quite simple, I just did, didn’t I? “All decisions are emotional.” If you have been following me for a while, you know that I’ll often start a post with a quote from a famous person. This time is an exception because the quote is from a not-so-famous person. Me. That’s right, I started saying this years ago as I observed humans in various situations. OK, OK, it may not be right 100% of the time, and before you send me hate mail, post about me on social media and protest in front of my house, let’s dig in a bit, and I hope to be able to convince you that, at the end of the day, I’m more right than I am wrong. Perhaps, we should change “all” to “most.” Most does not sound as good, however, and if I succeeded in getting your attention and whetted your appetite to read on, then I accomplished my goal for today.
As we get into today’s post, what I want you to focus on is outcomes. Let me say that again. We are going to focus on the end result of our efforts. Because, frankly, in all we do, we want to get a favorable result. Don’t you agree?
The set up
As you know from my off-schedule posts, something is happening that has prompted me to write this, and I want to share information that I hope will entertain you, prompt you to think, and perhaps educate you in the process. I’m just about finished reading my latest book, “Super Crunchers.” It’s a former NY Times Business Bestseller, and if you are into data and crunching numbers, you can get a copy by clicking on the link in Note 1. Here’s what I’ll tell you: it’s a bit dry and full of detail (duh, you say), and I considered not completing it, but every time I did, I stumbled onto something that caught my interest and caused me to read on. Then, while I was reading the book, I read an interesting newspaper article that was a “He makes how much?” moment. This caused me to think about the use of data in decision making and I had flashbacks of all the times in the past, and frankly, even today, in the present, where good data should have made a decision easy but it was not followed. What do you think the outcome (there’s that word again) is when we make decisions based upon emotion rather than data? Well, let’s find out together.
Actions where using data is a logical, that is, not emotional, decision
I’d like to provide you with some everyday actions that, if followed, would lead to improved outcomes, that is, better end results. You may not personally take many of these actions, but I trust you can follow the reasoning I present these examples.
Aviation, in particular commercial aviation, has become extremely safe. A large part of the reason for this is that standardized procedures have been developed for many of the participants such as pilots, mechanics, air traffic controllers, etc. based upon past accident and incident data. If everyone involved follows the standardized, written procedures, you can expect excellent results. The data says follow the procedures, get good results. The accident rate in aviation is so low that most of the focus now is on human behavior, commonly referred to as human factors and why people do not do, or act in ways that are contrary to, what they inherently know, they should.
The medical community has been learning from aviation in recent years. There are two facets I want to discuss today:
Surgical errors. A number of years ago in an effort to improve surgical results, the World Health Organization developed a simple checklist to be performed prior to surgery (Note 2). The New England Journal of Medicine concluded that implementation of the surgical checklist reduced the rate of surgical deaths by almost 50% and reduced complications by approximately 27% (Note 3). If you’ve ever had surgery and had a mark put on your skin at the point of the surgery, you will recognize the use of the surgical checklist.
Hospital acquired infections (HAIs), also known as nosocomial infections are infections patients develop during their stay in the hospital. Common causes of HAI’s are urinary catheters, intravenous (IV) lines and central lines, surgical site, respiratory tract, and gastrointestinal infections, the hospital environment itself, patient-to-patient transmission, and healthcare provider transmission. There is a lot here, and I don’t have the time or space to go into all the improvement opportunities. However, if we focus solely on improving handwashing among healthcare professionals, we could see a significant reduction in infections (Note 4). In this instance, the study referenced in Note 4 focused on increasing compliance from “high” to “exceedingly high” to improve results. If you want additional information on this topic, click on the link in Note 5. Were you aware of these statistics regarding handwashing? I have been for some time, and I continue to be amazed that this is as big an issue as it is. Handwashing in a medical environment seems like such a simple issue. And I’m guessing that, like aviation, a focus on human behavior can yield opportunities for improvement.
Expanding on the previous two discussions regarding the use of checklists and standardized procedures, an amazing book has been written on the topic entitled The Checklist Manifesto (Note 5) and is available via my website via the link in Note 5. If you, in your business or homelife, want to improve your outcomes, consider purchasing this book and following the guidelines. Checklists and the compliance with them are a basic tenet of LEAN and Six Sigma that everyone should be using. In all cases, checklists are developed based upon data and will, if followed, result in a favorable outcome.
Machine tool data. If you run a modern machine tool or multiple tools, data is often stored in memory that can be downloaded, analyzed, and acted upon to improve results. When I was working, we undertook a worldwide effort to connect every machine tool to a central database where data could be monitored in real time. It’s possible to set what we call control limits such that if a machine is getting out of tolerance, it can be shut down remotely and the problem corrected before damage or non-conforming products are produced. I’ve seen numerous quality issues, including scrapped parts due to errors or inattention by the machine tool operator. Human error is expensive.
Cooking. Many cooks prepare meals by “feel.” I’ve eaten many amazing meals prepared by my mother and grandmother who cooked this way. However, when I wrote my cookbook, I had to ensure exact measurements and quantities to ensure that my readers could reproduce the dish accurately. If you’ve ever downloaded a recipe off the internet and had less-than-stellar results, you know what I mean. Following the recipe, the procedure developed from the data of less than the desired outcome (OK, a bad meal…) will improve a cook’s performance in the kitchen.
Personal finance. This one is special to me and is one of the primary reasons I developed Afterburner Success Partners. Here are some excellent illustrations of what following the data can do for you. Consider these three simple examples where people could improve their financial situations dramatically:
Click on the online calculator link in Note 7. Assume your child is a college graduate at age 22. If you provided $100.00 seed money and they invest just $100.00 a month in an S&P Index fund returning 10%, the average since 1957 (Note 8), over a 40-year working career, they would have about $584,000 by age 62. If they worked to age 65, that number becomes $787,000. Increase that savings to $200.00 a month beginning at age 22 and NEVER INCREASE THAT AMOUNT AGAIN, and it becomes, at age 62 and age 65, respectively, $1.173 and $1.570M. Not bad.
What if your child goes to trade school, graduates at age 20, you provide the same seed money of $100.00 and they contribute $100.00 a month? At age 62 and 65, respectively, they will have $715,000 and $1.159M. Increase that savings to $200.00 a month and NEVER INCREASE IT, and you get $1.424 and $2.310M. This is how a trade worker can retire rich. Before you tell me I am full of it, let me break it down for you. Assume our trade school graduate earns $20 an hour. That’s over $41K a year, to start. Saving $200 a month is $2400 a year, or less than 10% of their gross pay. If they save that in a 401(k), they may even get an employer match, and the number can be significantly larger. Father, I pray, save me from the person who tells me they can’t save less than 10% of their pay because “they can’t afford it right now.” How long do I have to toil to get this message across and have someone, anyone, listen to me!?!? Note: For full disclosure, I did get the message across to a few. They are enjoying the fruits of that action today, over 20 years later, and it will continue to get better for them, their family, and their heirs over time…Your Honor, the defence rests…
Do you stop at Bar Stucks on the way to work for coffee and go out to eat lunch every day? What if you brought your own coffee and lunch from home? Let’s say you, or our young college or trade school graduate, spend $6.00 for coffee every day and $10.00 for lunch (if you can find it for that cheap, good luck) for a total of $16.00 a day, and you do that 5 days a week over the course of a 40 or 45-year career. Click on the cost savings calculator link in Note 9 and over a 40 and 45-year career to see what you would have accumulated assuming you avoided this expense five days a week and invested in the same S&P 500 index fund earning 10%. You would have saved $2.2M and $3.7M. Yes indeed, making coffee and lunch at home tastes a lot better, doesn’t it?
So, to wrap it up and put a bow on this discussion, saving a little starting early in life and not spending money on frivolous wants can easily net our young trade worker well over $5 million on the day they retire. That’s some pretty valuable information you read in a free blog that aims to educate people about this stuff.
Other instances where using data can improve results: Automotive maintenance. We own a vehicle with 285,000 miles on it and is in flawless condition and which has been meticulously maintained according to the manufacturer’s recommendations. Not everyone will obtain results like this, but you do know what happens if you don’t maintain your vehicle properly, don’t you? Lawn care. Applying the right amount of fertilizer at the right time in the right amount can result in a better-looking lawn at a lower cost. Politics. You’re aware that politicians utilize massive amounts of data to target their campaigns, ensuring the best results? You do know that, don’t you? Sports. This is something that has experienced significant growth over the past few years. Did you see the movie Moneyball? I just read an article in The Wall Street Journal where an assistant college football coach named Jim Knowles has received a $3.1 million contract from Penn State. Why? Because Knowles, called the “Mad Scientist,” uses algorithms to drive his coaching decisions (Note 10). How about pre-employment psychological testing? I’ve seen and used these tests; they are amazingly accurate.
I could go on, but you get the point. Data is your friend. Using it will help you. You can be sure that artificial intelligence (AI) does not use emotion to make decisions. Following your heart, acting on emotion, or whatever else you call it? It may work, but then again…Why chance it?
Actions where data is not often used or may not be available
Of course, there are some places where data does not, or should I say, at least not up to this point, drive decision-making. Here are a few:
Man and woman relationships, especially marital relationships. Yeah, you know I’m right. No matter how much logic one tries to use, it’s almost always the emotions that carry the day.
Parent/child relationships. Same thing. There’s no manual, at least one that is always right, on this issue. Especially a teenager. Again, logic and data don’t always work so well.
Employer/employee interpersonal relationships. I would love to think these follow some playbook, but I think we all know better. One might think that employers and employees share a common interest in seeing the business prosper, but that is not always the case. I’ve found that many of these relationships are really win-lose. I’ve previously written about these issues and used three companies as examples: Eastern Airlines, Yellow Corporation, and an emerging interest for me, UPS. Why can’t we find the common ground for good?
And finally, a favorite of mine. That’s giving. If you give of your money and your time, your investment in others often pays back in significant ways. I can’t prove this except to say that I did not understand this lesson for a long time. The Bible says that God loves a cheerful giver (2 Cor. 9:7), and my wife, Diane, often says, “You can’t outgive God.” That’s not to say that if you give X dollars, either through your tithing or other giving, you will get X plus something in return, and you should not expect anything frankly. We give because it’s what we are called to do. However, I will say that we often see these gifts repaid, often with significant investment returns, in different ways, perhaps answered prayer or other what I call “backhanded blessings.” There’s no way to use data for this; we act out of faith, after all, but I know it to be true in my life and those I know who do give of their time and money. You’ve heard it before, “It is better to give than receive. Of course, the recipients of your giving are blessed as well. What we really hope to see is that those blessed bless others, who bless others, who bless others. Giving is a true win-win situation! I would like to end this particular point with a true story. In 1983, I had just separated from the Air Force at Shaw AFB, SC, and went to work for American Airlines in Washington, DC, at Dulles airport as a part-time fleet service clerk, loading baggage and cleaning airplanes (airplane trivia: The DC10 had nine lavatories. That’s a lot to clean…). My family stayed behind to sell the house, and I stayed with my parents in Alexandria, VA.. I had hoped this part-time position would be “a foot in the door" to a mechanic job. Well, it quickly became evident that I would not be able to upgrade to a mechanic due to many mechanics being on layoff, so I pivoted and returned to South Carolina to finish up the last class I needed for my associate degree and close out the sale of my house. OK, OK, it wasn’t really a house, it was a mobile home. Yes! a trailer! (There’s a really good story here, I’ll tell it some other time.) There, I said it. OK? We had no place to live and, without a job, I really had nowhere to go. A kind-hearted Air Force officer we knew through friends and his family took us in for a few months until I reenlisted in the Air Force to go to Luke AFB, AZ. When it was time for us to leave for Arizona, I tried to give him some money to cover the costs of us staying there for about three months. He told me (and I paraphrase), "Your bill has been paid in full, and your only obligation is to pay it forward one day when you can.” Wow, what a fantastic learning moment. Less than two years later, I was able to take in a Vietnam vet, for a few months and even get him into the VA hospital as an inpatient for needed treatment. I still remember that lesson to this day.
The problem with data
There are some potential pitfalls we have to watch out for when we use data: It can be manipulated to gain a desired outcome. Facts can be omitted or added. There is bias in how data is presented. And of course, the old saw, garbage in, garbage out. Artificial Intelligence (AI), yeah, well, just be careful with that, as it’s not as smart as folks think it is. As we used to say, trust but verify. Always.
Summary
The use of data in day-to-day decisions can improve outcomes and lead to a better, richer life. You can take that to the bank with you.
That’s all for this week!
Victory!
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Notes
Please note that as an Amazon Affiliate, I may earn a small commission on the sale of any of these recommended resources.
Super Crunchers by Ian Ayers: https://amzn.to/4leMxRr
World Health Organization Surgical Checklist: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/patient-safety/9789241598590-eng-checklist.pdf
New England Journal of Medicine, A Surgical Safety Checklist to Reduce Morbidity and Mortality in a Global Population, January 29, 2009: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa0810119
National Library of Medicine, Reduction of Healthcare-Associated Infections by Exceeding High Compliance with hand Hygiene Practices: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4994356/
The Checklist Manifesto by Atul Gawande: https://amzn.to/45JcRi7
Wilmington Health, Reduce the spread of germs and illness with proper handwashing, November 24, 2024: https://www.wilmingtonhealth.com/blog/reduce-the-spread-of-germs-and-illness-with-proper-hand-washing/
Moneychimp Compound Interest Calculator: http://www.moneychimp.com/calculator/compound_interest_calculator.htm
Smartasset, What is the S&P 500 Average Annual Return?: https://smartasset.com/investing/sp-500-average-annual-return
Moneychimp cost savings calculator: http://www.moneychimp.com/features/cheapskate_calculator.htm
The Top Free Agent in College Is a 60-Year-Old ‘Mad Scientist’, The Wall Street Journal, August 6, 2025.